Sheikh Hasina's Exodus: A New Chapter for Bangladesh and its Impact on India

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and sought refuge in India amidst a surge of political unrest. The exact location of her stay in India remains undisclosed, and it is uncertain whether she will remain there or seek asylum in a third country. Meanwhile, the Bangladesh Army Chief General Walker-uz-Zaman has announced the establishment of an interim government, backed by political parties and civil society groups.

Sheikh Hasina, a steadfast ally of India, has significantly strengthened the bilateral relations between Bangladesh and India during her nearly 16-year tenure. Consequently, her resignation and subsequent exodus hold particular significance for India, marking the end of an era and the beginning of a period of uncertainty.

The Situation in Bangladesh

The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh is reminiscent of the turmoil in Afghanistan in 2021 and Sri Lanka in 2022, where leaders fled in the face of mass protests. However, the circumstances in Bangladesh are unique. The protests in Bangladesh began last month, primarily driven by demands for reforms in the quota system. Sheikh Hasina, who has been in power since 2009 and was re-elected for a fourth consecutive term in January, faced the most significant opposition yet.

Under her leadership, Bangladesh experienced notable economic growth, but her administration was also marked by allegations of suppressing the opposition, media, and civil society, leading to widespread unpopularity. The youth-led protests ultimately signaled the end of her tenure.

With Hasina's departure, Bangladesh faces considerable economic challenges. The country is still reeling from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and although it had been on a trajectory toward becoming a developing nation, the current political instability poses a significant threat to its economic recovery and future growth.

Implications for India

India has lost a trusted ally with Hasina's resignation. During her time in power, India and Bangladesh enjoyed close ties, with cooperation on various fronts, including counter-terrorism efforts. Hasina's administration supported India's efforts to curb terrorist activities originating from Bangladesh, and New Delhi, in turn, backed numerous development projects in Bangladesh.

Throughout the recent weeks of conflict in Bangladesh, New Delhi maintained a cautious stance, labeling the protests as an internal matter. Despite Western criticism of Hasina's undemocratic practices, India offered tacit support, prioritizing strategic interests over democratic ideals. This divergence in approach created friction between India and Western nations.

New Delhi's Next Moves

If Hasina chooses to remain in India, New Delhi will face the challenge of ensuring her safety while navigating the political ramifications of granting her asylum. This decision could strain relations with the new government in Bangladesh and invite criticism from the Bangladeshi populace, who have long perceived the Awami League regime as being propped up by India.

The future political landscape of Bangladesh is now a pressing concern for India. Historical experiences with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-Jamaat coalition and military regimes were marked by anti-Indian sentiments and the harboring of terrorist groups. India is wary of a potential resurgence of such dynamics, especially given the current geopolitical tensions along its borders with China and Pakistan.

For more insights on the political situation in Bangladesh, visit our in-depth coverage on Bengali Vogue here.